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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

cybercats

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 15 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 12 games
42%
Visage
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
58%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fezor · 9 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Egor · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
461 picks · 452 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
457 picks · 304 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 399 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
329 picks · 327 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
310 picks · 363 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
277 picks · 143 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
253 picks · 632 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
239 picks · 162 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:14
PuckChamp 59%cybercats 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by cybercats in 38:45.
Game 2prediction missed28:10
PuckChamp 59%cybercats 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by cybercats in 33:29.
Game 3prediction missed34:36
PuckChamp 59%cybercats 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by cybercats in 1:27:28.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 59%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3