Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
EXTREMUM
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
G · 9 games
Medusasignature
Nefrit · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 991 bans
Mars
349 picks · 572 bans
Void Spirit
345 picks · 527 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 346 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 701 bans
Lion
321 picks · 176 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
PuckChamp 64%EXTREMUM 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 36:00.
Game 2prediction missed31:8
PuckChamp 64%EXTREMUM 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 27:55.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultEXTREMUM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2