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ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Muka · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 975 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 198 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 223 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
286 picks · 635 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
277 picks · 470 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 75%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect