Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Fantastic Five
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 13 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Muka · 6 games
Mirana
Muka · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
418 picks · 168 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 466 bans
Mars
310 picks · 519 bans
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 620 bans
Puck
294 picks · 738 bans
Snapfire
280 picks · 161 bans
Enchantress
276 picks · 359 bans
Tiny
264 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:28
PuckChamp 72%Fantastic Five 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 43:44.
Game 2prediction missed18:30
PuckChamp 72%Fantastic Five 28%
The model gave 72% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 40:20.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 72%
Series resultFantastic Five 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2