EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
382 picks · 849 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 509 bans
Mars
310 picks · 554 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 484 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 234 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 72%
Hero pool strength64% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total65% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
PuckChamp 35%Hellbear Smashers 65%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by PuckChamp.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 65%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1