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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
79%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
79%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
459 picks · 181 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
360 picks · 200 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 555 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 825 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 478 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 612 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
304 picks · 243 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
287 picks · 364 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total59% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:11
PuckChamp 59%Hellbear Smashers 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:26.
Game 2prediction missed17:25
PuckChamp 59%Hellbear Smashers 41%
The model gave 59% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 29:08.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 59%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2