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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 27 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 21 game
48%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
61%
Bane
Bane
Muka · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 16 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Zayac · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 466 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 675 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
412 picks · 534 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
392 picks · 264 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 845 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 563 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 640 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 160 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:46
PuckChamp 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:38.
Game 2prediction missed14:30
PuckChamp 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:50.
Game 3prediction missed38:20
PuckChamp 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hydra in 38:14.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 53%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3