Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Khanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Khan
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Bane
antoha · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
layme · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
351 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 103 bans
Mars
269 picks · 415 bans
Lina
263 picks · 528 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 363 bans
Luna
237 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
231 picks · 240 bans
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:15
PuckChamp 67%Khan 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Khan in 42:51.
Game 2prediction missed30:14
PuckChamp 67%Khan 33%
The model gave 67% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Khan in 32:56.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 67%
Series resultKhan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2