Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KKorobkawindowsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Korobkawindows
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
21 picks · 26 bans
Mars
18 picks · 47 bans
Puck
17 picks · 47 bans
Earth Spirit
15 picks · 11 bans
Ember Spirit
15 picks · 15 bans
Monkey King
15 picks · 24 bans
Mirana
12 picks · 17 bans
Nyx Assassin
12 picks · 28 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:24
PuckChamp 50%Korobkawindows 50%
The model gave 50% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Korobkawindows in 37:34.
Game 2prediction missed24:4
PuckChamp 50%Korobkawindows 50%
The model gave 50% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Korobkawindows in 17:15.
Game 3prediction missed30:14
PuckChamp 50%Korobkawindows 50%
The model gave 50% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Korobkawindows in 27:10.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 50%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3