Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
414 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
359 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 600 bans
Puck
295 picks · 642 bans
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 358 bans
Mars
273 picks · 487 bans
Ancient Apparition
270 picks · 440 bans
Winter Wyvern
264 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:45
PuckChamp 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 52:05.
Game 2prediction missed30:42
PuckChamp 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:42.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 56%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2