Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 25 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
Lion
Lodine · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
364 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
327 picks · 119 bans
Lina
274 picks · 505 bans
Mars
264 picks · 434 bans
Luna
252 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 345 bans
Nyx Assassin
238 picks · 507 bans
Shadow Demon
230 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:10
PuckChamp 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:47.
Game 2prediction missed41:17
PuckChamp 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:29.
Game 3prediction missed10:43
PuckChamp 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:48.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 58%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3