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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 7 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
17%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 6 games
17%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 24 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 21 game
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 18 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 331 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
347 picks · 456 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 532 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 494 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 643 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
284 picks · 317 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 203 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
265 picks · 431 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:28
PuckChamp 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuragi
46% · 98 games50% · 116 games
Nature's Prophetyoung G
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
Invokerспортик
46% · 126 games47% · 162 games
Underlordhotoke^^
Underlord
Doom
Doomkrol9ash
53% · 177 games44% · 259 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaGothic-
54% · 115 games67% · 44 games
Bounty HunterCovisnine
Bounty Hunter
Bane
BaneHyugadoto
44% · 182 games55% · 117 games
Winter Wyvernariel
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct23:37
PuckChamp 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaспортик
50% · 100 games50% · 126 games
Doomhotoke^^
Doom
Sven
SvenYuragi
46% · 102 games52% · 214 games
Shadow Fiendyoung G
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkrol9ash
53% · 160 games52% · 170 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Largo
LargoGothic-
54% · 259 games49% · 260 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
51% · 309 games41% · 160 games
Dark WillowCovisnine
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed22:7
PuckChamp 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuragi
50% · 305 games49% · 214 games
Terrorbladeyoung G
Terrorblade
Lina
Linaспортик
53% · 70 games52% · 230 games
Doomhotoke^^
Doom
Lycan
Lycankrol9ash
44% · 98 games47% · 342 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGothic-
51% · 620 games49% · 355 games
RubickCovisnine
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
54% · 221 game51% · 173 games
Miranaariel
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3