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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
old bloodloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 18 games
17%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
8%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
18%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
18%
Slardar
Slardar
krol9ash · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 9 games
44%

old blood

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 316 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
438 picks · 214 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 307 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 504 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 291 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
281 picks · 513 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 133 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% old blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% old blood
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:17
PuckChamp 45%old blood 55%
The model gave 55% on old blood — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenonLiTaL
56% · 88 games50% · 94 games
Dark Seerягуд
Dark Seer
Pangolier
Pangoliergbc
50% · 246 games55% · 58 games
NecrophosEternal
Necrophos
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
43% · 126 games45% · 13 games
Outworld DestroyerResonance
Outworld Destroyer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterGothic-
58% · 65 games47% · 194 games
WindrangerThedarkestwne
Windranger
Dazzle
DazzleAkamu
50% · 104 games48% · 270 games
TuskЮрец
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct28:28
PuckChamp 45%old blood 55%
The model gave 55% on old blood — the game was taken by old blood in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenonLiTaL
47% · 102 games51% · 142 games
TerrorbladeEternal
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
45% · 148 games51% · 129 games
Dark Seerягуд
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritgbc
47% · 362 games53% · 254 games
PangolierResonance
Pangolier
Dazzle
DazzleAkamu
49% · 143 games56% · 224 games
RingmasterЮрец
Ringmaster
Windranger
WindrangerGothic-
52% · 358 games48% · 364 games
TuskThedarkestwne
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed47:35
PuckChamp 42%old blood 58%
The model gave 58% on old blood — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 58:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawkrol9ash
48% · 157 games46% · 84 games
SvenEternal
Sven
Windranger
WindrangeronLiTaL
48% · 325 games51% · 131 game
Dark Seerягуд
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
Earthshakergbc
43% · 49 games57% · 366 games
Ember SpiritResonance
Ember Spirit
Largo
LargoGothic-
52% · 197 games49% · 270 games
RubickThedarkestwne
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterAkamu
54% · 227 games49% · 104 games
DazzleЮрец
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteold blood · 60%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3