EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Prosti Esliloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
343 picks · 698 bans
Void Spirit
324 picks · 408 bans
Mars
272 picks · 478 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
230 picks · 339 bans
Rubick
228 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 642 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
PuckChamp 75%Prosti Esli 25%
The model gave 75% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 26:17.
Game 2prediction correct35:11
PuckChamp 75%Prosti Esli 25%
The model gave 75% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 32:21.
Game 3prediction correct34:8
PuckChamp 75%Prosti Esli 25%
The model gave 75% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 32:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 75%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3