Gamers Without Borders 2022. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Rune Eaters
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
436 picks · 274 bans
Mars
424 picks · 566 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 446 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 723 bans
Sand King
322 picks · 440 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 422 bans
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:34
PuckChamp 51%Rune Eaters 49%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 33:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 51%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1