?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Spider Pigzs

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 15 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mitch · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 13 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 12 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dnz · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
428 picks · 172 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 524 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 470 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
303 picks · 762 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 167 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 628 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
279 picks · 361 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
277 picks · 222 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:11
PuckChamp 69%Spider Pigzs 31%
The model gave 69% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 24:23.
Game 2prediction missed7:15
PuckChamp 69%Spider Pigzs 31%
The model gave 69% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 26:34.
Game 3prediction missed17:36
PuckChamp 69%Spider Pigzs 31%
The model gave 69% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 31:03.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 69%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3