Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Faithloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Faith
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 534 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 697 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 774 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 826 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
PuckChamp 74%Team Faith 26%
The model gave 74% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 74%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1