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Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 7 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
20%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
40%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 28 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
61%
Techies
Techies
kreker · 17 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 363 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
365 picks · 653 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
350 picks · 196 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
334 picks · 376 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 345 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 448 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
311 picks · 232 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 424 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:21
PuckChamp 44%Team Lynx 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 45:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYuragi
48% · 165 games48% · 296 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Enigma
Enigmakrol9ash
51% · 69 games53% · 208 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
59% · 321 game48% · 105 games
Undyingkreker
Undying
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHyugadoto
48% · 69 games46% · 161 game
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Largo
LargoGothic-
49% · 146 games
Game 2prediction correct0:0
PuckChamp 44%Team Lynx 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuragi
46% · 76 games53% · 49 games
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Dark Seer
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
44% · 94 games55% · 54 games
Earth Spiritmellojul
Earth Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spiritxn丶e
41% · 213 games50% · 161 game
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHyugadoto
56% · 91 game54% · 309 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaGothic-
51% · 99 games
Game 3prediction correct10:37
PuckChamp 45%Team Lynx 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYuragi
46% · 165 games50% · 186 games
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Enigma
Enigmakrol9ash
53% · 73 games49% · 59 games
Earth Spiritmellojul
Earth Spirit
Puck
Puckxn丶e
46% · 268 games50% · 52 games
Miranakreker
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressHyugadoto
50% · 147 games54% · 396 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterGothic-
51% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 62%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3