Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Marsoften banned
laise · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Kiritych · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
41 picks · 78 bans
Puck
35 picks · 86 bans
Earth Spirit
33 picks · 24 bans
Void Spirit
30 picks · 46 bans
Monkey King
27 picks · 46 bans
Undying
25 picks · 47 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 31 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:26
PuckChamp 52%V-Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 41:01.
Game 2prediction missed33:12
PuckChamp 52%V-Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 33:28.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 52%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2