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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ViKin.ggloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 20 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 12 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 11 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 1013 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 598 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 183 bans
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
332 picks · 522 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
322 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 288 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 76%
Hero pool strength59% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total82% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
PuckChamp 18%ViKin.gg 82%
The model gave 82% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:07.
Game 2prediction correct30:29
PuckChamp 18%ViKin.gg 82%
The model gave 82% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 46:49.
Game 3prediction correct26:34
PuckChamp 18%ViKin.gg 82%
The model gave 82% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 50:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 82%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3