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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 14 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 996 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 572 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
343 picks · 522 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 353 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
331 picks · 180 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
325 picks · 698 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 222 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 277 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
PuckChamp 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:08.
Game 2prediction correct21:26
PuckChamp 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 39:27.
Game 3prediction correct28:26
PuckChamp 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 43:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 51%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3