Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Winstrike Team
Phoenix
yamich · 17 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 11 games
Lion
yamich · 11 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
457 picks · 179 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 195 bans
Mars
344 picks · 550 bans
Puck
324 picks · 812 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 478 bans
Nyx Assassin
314 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
299 picks · 237 bans
Enchantress
287 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total71% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:37
PuckChamp 71%Winstrike Team 29%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 35:46.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
PuckChamp 71%Winstrike Team 29%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 40:37.
Game 3prediction missed28:21
PuckChamp 71%Winstrike Team 29%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 32:16.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 71%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3