The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Bane
antoha · 20 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 16 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
nesfeer · 13 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
728 picks · 569 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1031 bans
Dawnbreaker
480 picks · 633 bans
Marci
442 picks · 787 bans
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 381 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
PuckChamp 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 31:29.
Game 2prediction missed31:9
PuckChamp 53%X3 47%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 37:52.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 53%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2