BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Tinysignature
velheor · 23 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 16 games
Jakirosignature
dark · 15 games
Morphlingsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
357 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
315 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 462 bans
Pangolier
246 picks · 553 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
216 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% X3
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:6
PuckChamp 58%X3 42%
The model gave 58% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 24:32.
Game 2prediction missed18:28
PuckChamp 58%X3 42%
The model gave 58% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by X3 in 37:28.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 58%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2