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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 13 games
23%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
9%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 10 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 9 games
22%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
38%
Largo
Largooften banned
Gothic- · 7 games
14%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 36 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 29 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kami · 23 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Kami · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
490 picks · 331 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 471 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 508 bans
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 470 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
310 picks · 641 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 302 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 342 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
265 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:34
PuckChamp 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaспортик
49% · 93 games51% · 125 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyYuragi
47% · 310 games54% · 210 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
42% · 124 games53% · 129 games
Earth Spiriterase
Earth Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
50% · 206 games47% · 212 games
Rubickraregods
Rubick
Marci
MarciGothic-
48% · 42 games58% · 99 games
Winter WyvernHduo
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct14:20
PuckChamp 31%Zero Tenacity 69%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuragi
49% · 344 games54% · 223 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Lycan
Lycankrol9ash
52% · 159 games46% · 222 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Snapfire
Snapfireспортик
46% · 336 games49% · 427 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickGothic-
48% · 288 games58% · 332 games
BaneHduo
Bane
Ringmaster
RingmasterHyugadoto
49% · 257 games48% · 180 games
Techiesraregods
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 79%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2