Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Balrogswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Qhali
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Cucahook · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Mirana
MonHty · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 3 games
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Silencer
ShakaLord · 5 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakesh1t · 4 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 4 games
Mirana
Demon · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
590 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 516 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
408 picks · 475 bans
Mirana
373 picks · 361 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 181 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 199 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 748 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:16
Qhali 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Qhali in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCucahook
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
LeshracRobo-Z
Chaos KnightDM
VisageHermit
Beastmasterdrakesh1t
Monkey KingMonHty
HoodwinkDemon
UndyingLuis
DisruptorShakaLord
Game 2prediction correct10:20
Qhali 43%Balrogs 57%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackCucahook
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
Keeper of the LightRobo-Z
SlarkDM
VisageHermit
Beastmasterdrakesh1t
Monkey KingMonHty
TuskDemon
UndyingLuis
JakiroShakaLord
Game 3prediction correct16:22
Qhali 43%Balrogs 57%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaCucahook
SlarkDM
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
DawnbreakerMonHty
Beastmasterdrakesh1t
VisageHermit
RubickDemon
UndyingLuis
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 64%
Series resultBalrogs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3