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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mad Kingsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Qhali

Undying
Undyingsignature
Luis · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Cucahook · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Robo-Z · 3 games
33%

Mad Kings

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 10 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
636 picks · 415 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 434 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
447 picks · 527 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
369 picks · 204 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
326 picks · 213 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:38
Qhali 40%Mad Kings 60%
The model gave 60% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 1:12:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCucahook
38% · 20 games53% · 193 games
EnigmaArzenT
Enigma
Lycan
LycanHermit
50% · 18 games
Pangolier
PangolierRobo-Z
40% · 61 game
Leshrac
LeshracMonHty
59% · 42 games
Undying
UndyingLuis
50% · 52 games
Game 2prediction missed39:8
Qhali 43%Mad Kings 57%
The model gave 57% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Qhali in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCucahook
38% · 25 games53% · 221 game
BeastmasterArzenT
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaRobo-Z
46% · 53 games
Lycan
LycanHermit
55% · 36 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMonHty
44% · 51 game
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLuis
55% · 56 games
Game 3prediction missed28:3
Qhali 36%Mad Kings 64%
The model gave 64% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Qhali in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeCucahook
42% · 27 games55% · 154 games
BroodmotherArzenT
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
52% · 19 games
Beastmaster
BeastmasterHermit
50% · 20 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMonHty
42% · 27 games
Snapfire
SnapfireLuis
37% · 61 game
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 67%
Series resultQhali 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3