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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Universitario Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Qhali

Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 13 games
31%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 11 games
27%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Luis · 7 games
14%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 7 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkz
MonHty · 6 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MonHty · 5 games
20%

Universitario Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
496 picks · 537 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
450 picks · 226 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 692 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 626 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
338 picks · 710 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
334 picks · 340 bans
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 781 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 522 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Qhali 26%Universitario Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 37:23.
Game 2prediction missed37:22
Qhali 26%Universitario Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Qhali in 55:39.
Game 3prediction missed30:18
Qhali 26%Universitario Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Qhali in 43:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 74%
Series resultQhali 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3