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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Qhali

Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 14 games
36%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 14 games
29%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Luis · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
44%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
MonHty · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
57%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 7 games
57%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Wij · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tavo · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
699 picks · 485 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
577 picks · 623 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1101 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 503 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1226 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
472 picks · 1045 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
464 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
456 picks · 919 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:25
Qhali 46%x5 Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Qhali in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCucahook
53% · 136 games51% · 66 games
JuggernautBenny
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
40% · 181 game49% · 284 games
BatriderTavo
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light555k
55% · 89 games50% · 75 games
LichWij
Lich
Clinkz
ClinkzMonHty
54% · 19 games
Game 2prediction missed
Qhali 37%x5 Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Qhali.
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 63%
Series resultQhali 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2