The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
No games played over 6 months.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 734 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 633 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1039 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:19
Quantum Team 20%Matreshka Team 80%
The model gave 80% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 23:43.
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Quantum Team 20%Matreshka Team 80%
The model gave 80% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 25:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 80%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2