CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
Dark Willow
Somnia · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 3 games
Magnus
kolya_kaBAN68 · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Fezor · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Somnia · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
Rubick
Somnia · 2 games
Matreshka Team
Pangolieroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 2 games
Visageoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Dark Willow
Groom · 1 game
Drow Ranger
dizzying · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Groom · 1 game
Elder Titan
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
336 picks · 272 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 433 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 547 bans
Jakiro
309 picks · 248 bans
Clockwerk
287 picks · 244 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 467 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 403 bans
Sand King
284 picks · 792 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Quantum Team 52%Matreshka Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingbashka
Ursadizzying
Templar AssassinRvze
PuckEgor
Marskolya_kaBAN68
Centaur Warrunnerkur0patbI4
PhoenixFezor
Shadow DemonGroom
Keeper of the LightSomnia
Game 2prediction missed27:51
Quantum Team 51%Matreshka Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterkolya_kaBAN68
Bristlebackdizzying
TinyRvze
ViperEgor
Templar Assassinbashka
Marskur0patbI4
BatriderSomnia
ClockwerkGroom
SnapfireFezor
Game 3prediction missed25:45
Quantum Team 56%Matreshka Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerbashka
Lunadizzying
Earth SpiritRvze
ViperEgor
Magnuskolya_kaBAN68
Pangolierkur0patbI4
Keeper of the LightSomnia
RubickGroom
ClockwerkFezor
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 57%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3