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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 5 games
0%

MOUZ

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 21 game
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
465 picks · 375 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 539 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
380 picks · 484 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 198 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 598 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
364 picks · 406 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 582 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
341 picks · 856 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
Quantum Team 28%MOUZ 72%
The model gave 72% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidbashka
54% · 109 games46% · 373 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerRvze
54% · 201 game54% · 238 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
49% · 182 games49% · 240 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Batrider
Batriderkolya_kaBAN68
42% · 422 games59% · 135 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
PhoenixFezor
47% · 323 games50% · 251 game
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct7:36
Quantum Team 27%MOUZ 73%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbashka
46% · 251 game59% · 212 games
Monkey KingLowskill
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerRvze
51% · 168 games50% · 406 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierAnkou
45% · 369 games51% · 307 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockFezor
60% · 27 games34% · 24 games
Venomancerxsvampire
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark Willowkolya_kaBAN68
46% · 226 games53% · 92 games
LichFly
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 84%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2