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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Secretwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnus
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
25%

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
BOOM · 5 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
80%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shishak · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
433 picks · 557 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 381 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 444 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
316 picks · 374 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 580 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
278 picks · 149 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 345 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:35
Quantum Team 42%Team Secret 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunabashka
50% · 221 game48% · 278 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Sand King
Sand KingRvze
52% · 114 games54% · 210 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSomnia
49% · 212 games49% · 37 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Tusk
TuskFezor
50% · 224 games49% · 246 games
Dark WillowKyzko
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 65%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1