PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xxanblloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
Magnusoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
413 picks · 339 bans
Clockwerk
411 picks · 538 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 379 bans
Lion
353 picks · 182 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 810 bans
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% xanbl
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Quantum Team 53%xanbl 47%
The model gave 53% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by xanbl.
Game 2prediction correct
Quantum Team 53%xanbl 47%
The model gave 53% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Game 3prediction correct
Quantum Team 53%xanbl 47%
The model gave 53% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 53%
Series resultQuantum Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3