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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 11 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
11%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 8 games
38%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 25 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 22 games
41%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
56%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 421 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
446 picks · 524 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 543 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
439 picks · 565 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
433 picks · 231 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 776 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 582 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 428 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:33
Quantum Team 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magebashka
54% · 52 games45% · 176 games
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritспортик
52% · 187 games53% · 68 games
EarthshakerStojkov
Earthshaker
Lion
Lionkolya_kaBAN68
47% · 239 games54% · 130 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Lich
LichFezor
42% · 125 games48% · 109 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
61% · 120 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct13:26
Quantum Team 32%Zero Tenacity 68%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinbashka
41% · 68 games46% · 120 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Sniper
Sniperспортик
52% · 162 games51% · 29 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterkolya_kaBAN68
49% · 53 games52% · 90 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Lich
LichFezor
56% · 138 games54% · 98 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
48% · 84 games
EnchantressLeBronDota
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 79%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2