Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 4 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
437 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 704 bans
Mars
346 picks · 594 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 305 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 267 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 20%
Hero pool strength51% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:42
Quincy Crew 83%Eternity 17%
The model gave 83% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:08:33.
Game 2prediction missed3:17
Quincy Crew 83%Eternity 17%
The model gave 83% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Eternity in 16:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 83%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2