Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 266 bans
Mars
407 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 414 bans
Death Prophet
335 picks · 682 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 440 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 389 bans
Weaver
270 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:33
Quincy Crew 47%Evil Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 32:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1