Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Felt
Axe
Zore · 9 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 8 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
solji · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 448 bans
Mars
484 picks · 700 bans
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 536 bans
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 628 bans
Sand King
389 picks · 545 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 619 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:30
Quincy Crew 84%Felt 16%
The model gave 84% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Felt in 22:08.
Game 2prediction missed36:5
Quincy Crew 84%Felt 16%
The model gave 84% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Felt in 23:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 84%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2