ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
Pucksignature
Topson · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 6 games
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
415 picks · 194 bans
Mars
387 picks · 573 bans
Puck
383 picks · 877 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 328 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 386 bans
Ancient Apparition
268 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:29
Quincy Crew 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by OG in 41:53.
Game 2prediction missed22:17
Quincy Crew 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by OG in 33:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 70%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2