Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
451 picks · 987 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 592 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 696 bans
Mars
350 picks · 609 bans
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 301 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
286 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 60%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect