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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TSMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 16 games
81%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
DuBu · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
89%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 267 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 559 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
344 picks · 400 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 671 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 432 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 367 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
290 picks · 346 bans
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
260 picks · 561 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 68%
Hero pool strength65% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:22
Quincy Crew 40%TSM 60%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 42:42.
Game 2prediction correct20:6
Quincy Crew 40%TSM 60%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 24:47.
Game 3prediction correct17:18
Quincy Crew 40%TSM 60%
The model gave 60% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 36:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 60%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3