Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewloss 0:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TSMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Mars
408 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 416 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 683 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 443 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 389 bans
Weaver
272 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 65%
Hero pool strength63% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:38
Quincy Crew 44%TSM 56%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 28:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 56%
Series resultTSM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1