Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 11 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 11 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 440 bans
Mars
481 picks · 699 bans
Bane
451 picks · 297 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 612 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 605 bans
Sand King
367 picks · 529 bans
Keeper of the Light
347 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
Quincy Crew 72%Wildcard Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 38:01.
Game 2prediction missed19:37
Quincy Crew 72%Wildcard Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 72%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2