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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
qwerty44loss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

qwerty44

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fezor · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
0%

B8 Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
71%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 180 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
360 picks · 130 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
283 picks · 583 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
275 picks · 359 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 435 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
263 picks · 578 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 243 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
246 picks · 524 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% qwerty44
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:37
qwerty44 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKom4rt
30% · 57 games62% · 8 games
ClinkzWatson
Clinkz
Batrider
BatriderUSHUSHUSH
43% · 73 games60% · 40 games
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
Bane
BaneFezor
50% · 14 games65% · 79 games
PuckDendi
Puck
52% · 17 games
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct26:46
qwerty44 50%B8 Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 52:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKom4rt
35% · 36 games64% · 21 game
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingUSHUSHUSH
41% · 69 games37% · 14 games
RazorDendi
Razor
Disruptor
DisruptorFezor
52% · 57 games60% · 54 games
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
57% · 73 games
Lion[T]SA
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty44 · 52%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2