Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs predictionQqwerty44loss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Winter Wyvern
Fezor · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
Grimstroke
Fezor · 2 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
Lina
259 picks · 427 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
Luna
251 picks · 341 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 244 bans
Terrorblade
237 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
qwerty44 26%HellRaisers 74%
The model gave 74% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 25:37.
Game 2prediction correct27:33
qwerty44 26%HellRaisers 74%
The model gave 74% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 35:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 74%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2