Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionQqwertywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 931 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 562 bans
Mars
325 picks · 599 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 567 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 169 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 404 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% qwerty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% qwerty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
qwerty 57%Cascade Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on qwerty — the game was taken by qwerty in 29:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty · 57%
Series resultqwerty 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1