Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionQqwertyloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1022 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 620 bans
Mars
377 picks · 662 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
339 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
270 picks · 854 bans
Tusk
266 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% qwerty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 71%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect