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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Ragdollwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ragdoll

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
vtFαded · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Yif · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Azrael · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Gy · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Azrael · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Yif · 2 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gy · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ahjit · 2 games
100%

InterActive Philippines

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 5 games
20%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Matt · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Matt · 3 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Luciano · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Kim0 · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 458 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
276 picks · 209 bans
59%
Monkey King
Monkey King
272 picks · 693 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
264 picks · 396 bans
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
260 picks · 145 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
256 picks · 551 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
212 picks · 98 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
209 picks · 241 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% Ragdoll
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:42
Ragdoll 61%InterActive Philippines 39%
The model gave 61% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladevtFαded
50% · 161 game57% · 3 games
MeepoNishababy
Meepo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAhjit
45% · 82 games53% · 237 games
TidehunterMarb
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsGy
50% · 382 games52% · 236 games
PangolierLuciano
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkYif
52% · 156 games48% · 322 games
LionMatt
Lion
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiAzrael
48% · 64 games51% · 47 games
SilencerKim0
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct29:11
Ragdoll 61%InterActive Philippines 39%
The model gave 61% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladevtFαded
51% · 150 games49% · 60 games
Phantom AssassinMarb
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawGy
48% · 131 game48% · 175 games
LinaNishababy
Lina
Puck
PuckAhjit
51% · 336 games45% · 64 games
Night StalkerLuciano
Night Stalker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerYif
46% · 45 games49% · 135 games
WeaverKim0
Weaver
Bane
BaneAzrael
60% · 138 games51% · 366 games
LionMatt
Lion
Game 3prediction correct35:6
Ragdoll 60%InterActive Philippines 40%
The model gave 60% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenvtFαded
54% · 47 games52% · 36 games
Phantom LancerMarb
Phantom Lancer
Necrophos
NecrophosGy
56% · 16 games46% · 34 games
Dragon KnightNishababy
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAhjit
49% · 70 games51% · 111 games
WeaverMatt
Weaver
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerYif
47% · 39 games55% · 26 games
Outworld DestroyerLuciano
Outworld Destroyer
Bane
BaneAzrael
49% · 92 games46% · 57 games
ClockwerkKim0
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 69%
Series resultRagdoll 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3