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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Ragdollwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KOBOLDSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ragdoll

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
vtFαded · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Yif · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Azrael · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Azrael · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Yif · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ahjit · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Ahjit · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gy · 1 game
0%

KOBOLDS

Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
266 picks · 348 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
263 picks · 388 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
250 picks · 592 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 104 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
226 picks · 251 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
218 picks · 463 bans
54%
Bane
Bane
217 picks · 144 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 269 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Ragdoll 55%KOBOLDS 45%
The model gave 55% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusavtFαded
61% · 14 games51% · 64 games
LifestealerFortuneSoul
Lifestealer
Viper
ViperAhjit
48% · 17 games
Death Prophet
Death ProphetGy
38% · 20 games
Earthshaker
EarthshakerYif
58% · 8 games
Undying
UndyingAzrael
44% · 5 games
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Ragdoll 50%KOBOLDS 50%
The model gave 50% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautvtFαded
56% · 28 games48% · 113 games
Wraith KingFortuneSoul
Wraith King
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerAhjit
31% · 12 games
Pangolier
PangolierGy
50% · 28 games
Weaver
WeaverYif
54% · 22 games
Disruptor
DisruptorAzrael
67% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 56%
Series resultRagdoll 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2