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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ram Squadloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ram Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
BliNcc · 8 games
63%
Clinkz
Clinkz
w33 · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
33%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Flash · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
w33 · 2 games
50%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
63%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 211 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
338 picks · 365 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 526 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 539 bans
53%
Morphling
Morphling
300 picks · 591 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 486 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
281 picks · 671 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 514 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:39
Ram Squad 32%Level UP 68%
The model gave 68% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingkAAN
59% · 17 games49% · 43 games
Templar AssassinLorenof
Templar Assassin
Invoker
Invokerw33
40% · 70 games63% · 31 game
Faceless Void7jesu
Faceless Void
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBliNcc
49% · 52 games49% · 35 games
Dark SeerOwnedMe
Dark Seer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFlash
43% · 23 games57% · 21 game
Dark Willowso bad
Dark Willow
56% · 32 games
Earth Spiritswedenstrong
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed39:24
Ram Squad 32%Level UP 68%
The model gave 68% on Level UP — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerkAAN
56% · 141 game48% · 71 game
Slark7jesu
Slark
Invoker
Invokerw33
47% · 87 games56% · 216 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBliNcc
49% · 62 games40% · 43 games
Vengeful SpiritOwnedMe
Vengeful Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFlash
57% · 202 games48% · 139 games
Treant Protectorswedenstrong
Treant Protector
38% · 23 games
Grimstrokeso bad
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct11:39
Ram Squad 33%Level UP 67%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinkAAN
40% · 83 games55% · 35 games
Monkey King7jesu
Monkey King
Visage
VisageBliNcc
50% · 160 games47% · 42 games
InvokerLorenof
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritw33
43% · 122 games61% · 116 games
BeastmasterOwnedMe
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockFlash
62% · 22 games48% · 154 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
58% · 40 games
Treant Protectorso bad
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 81%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3